CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-12-01T02:48:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

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Notes:

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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Dec 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

...24 hr Summary...
Flare activity reached high levels due to an X1.9 at 01/0249 UTC from
Region 4299 (N22E68, Dai/beta-gamma). Significant field line movement
and shock wave can be seen in GOES SUVI 195 Angstroms. Dimming can be
seen on over much of the northeast quadrant of the disk, indicating
significant loss of material. The associated CME can be seen in Lasco C2
coronagraph imagery starting at 01/0248 UTC. It had both a Type IV and
Type II radio sweep with reported velocities around 1,000 km/s, and a
Tenflare that reached 410 pfu.

Energetic Particle

...Forecast...
Solar wind parameters will trend towards nominal conditions 02 Dec
before becoming elevated again. Three things will impact the solar wind
03-04 Dec; 1) sector boundary crossing from positive to negative 2)
co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the CH HSS associated with
the negative CH near the central meridian 3) and a glancing blow from a
powerful CME associated with the X1.9 discussed earlier. All three will
create turbulence, compression, and overall enhancements within the
solar wind 03-04 Dec.

Geospace

...Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will remain at unsettled levels 02 Dec and into 03
Dec. As discussed in the Solar wind forecast section, three space
weather phenomena will be occurring between 03-04 Dec. The CIR will
likely be strong enough on its own to bring G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storming levels but the uncertainty of CME arrival time decreases
confidence in magnitude. If they arrive at the same time, G3 (Moderate)
storming levels are likely with conditions waning towards active to G1
levels thereafter. If they are reasonably spaced apart in time, G2
(Moderate) conditions will persist for longer, throughout 04 Dec. G2
Watches have been issued for 03 and 04 Dec.

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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Dec 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Disturbances in the solar wind environment are anticipated to return and
arrive at Earth beginning by late on 03 Dec. First, phi is expected to
enter the negative solar sector followed by the arrival of enhanced
magnetic field ahead of fast solar wind associated with a recurrent,
equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. This
disturbance may be further enhanced by the glancing blow from the shock
produced by a eastern limb coronal mass ejection that was associated
with the aforementioned X1.9 flare on 01 Dec. While the disturbances
from shock arrivals are typically brief, the enhancements of this
combined phenomena is anticipated to continue through 04 Dec, with
lingering effects possible on 05 Dec.

Geospace

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels
into 03 Dec. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely to give way
to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods by late 03 Dec due to the
phenomena described in the solar wind section. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
storming is then likely to continue into 04 Dec. It should also be noted
that a chance (25%) for isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic
storming will exist on 03 and 04 Dec, especially if the corotating
interaction region ahead of the high speed stream arrives with embedded
shock from the 01 Dec CME. Otherwise, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions
will most likely give way to mostly active levels as 04 Dec draws to a
close. 05 Dec will likely remain at unsettled to active levels as the
system recovers.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Dec 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 02-Dec 04 2025

             Dec 02       Dec 03       Dec 04
00-03UT       1.33         3.00         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       1.33         3.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       1.33         3.00         4.33     
12-15UT       1.33         3.00         3.67     
15-18UT       1.33         3.33         3.67     
18-21UT       1.67         4.33         4.00     
21-00UT       1.67         5.67 (G2)    4.33     

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on 03-04 Dec due to a
combination of activity from a CIR/CH HSS and the arrival of a glancing
blow from the 01 Dec CME.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Dec 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 03-Dec 05 2025

             Dec 03       Dec 04       Dec 05
00-03UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    4.33     
03-06UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    4.33     
06-09UT       3.00         5.67 (G2)    4.33     
09-12UT       3.00         4.33         4.00     
12-15UT       3.00         3.67         3.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.67         3.33     
18-21UT       4.33         4.00         3.00     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    4.33         3.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to
commence by late on 03 Dec and continue into 04 Due due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects possibly combined with glancing shock arrival
from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 01 Dec. It should also
be noted that a chance (25%) for isolated periods of G3 (Strong)
geomagnetic storming will exist on late 03 Dec and early 04 Dec,
especially if the corotating interaction region ahead of the high speed
stream arrives with embedded shock.

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